A candidate backed by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government won Okinawa’s gubernatorial election on Sunday, ousting an opponent of Tokyo’s military build-up across the strategically important island chain near Taiwan and China. Genta Koja, 42, defeated two-term incumbent Denny Tamaki, 66, with 59% of the vote in a result announced early on Monday.
His victory, after a campaign dominated by concerns over rising prices, ends 12 years of rule by governors frequently at odds with the central government. Tamaki’s defeat could weaken local efforts to halt the relocation of some U.S. Marines from the busy Futenma air base to a more remote facility at Henoko, on Okinawa’s main island.
Opponents want the troops moved out of the prefecture instead. Japan’s government said on Monday it would press ahead with the relocation. Koja’s victory may also make it easier to expand military access to airports and ports, according to Masaaki Gabe, a professor emeritus at the University of the Ryukyus.
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Masaaki Gabe noted that Koja could reasonably be expected to approve their designation, opening wholly civilian facilities to military use. The Okinawa election result comes as Takaichi prepares to unveil a new national security strategy this year that is expected to accelerate Japan’s biggest military build-up since World War Two.
Her administration says increased defence spending is necessary to deter China from using military force to advance its territorial ambitions in East Asia. Okinawa forms part of what military planners call the First Island Chain, a string of territory stretching from Japan through the Philippines that constrains China’s access to the Western Pacific.
Yonaguni, Japan’s westernmost inhabited island, lies just 110 km east of Taiwan. Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory and has stepped up military activity around the democratically governed island. Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing have risen since Takaichi said last year that a Chinese attack on Taiwan that also threatened Japan could trigger a military response by Tokyo.
Japan’s military build-up could lead to increased cooperation with other countries in the region, potentially altering the balance of power in East Asia. Japan has deployed missile and electronic-warfare units on several of its southwestern islands and is expanding ammunition storage across the territory.
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Japan’s new national security strategy will play a significant role in shaping the country’s military presence in the region. The relocation of U.S. Marines and the expansion of military access to airports and ports are expected to be major factors in this strategy.
They will likely face challenges in implementing their plans, but with Koja’s victory, they may have a freer hand to pursue their military build-up goals. The outcome of the Okinawa election has significant implications for the region, and it will be important to watch how the situation develops in the coming months.
The situation is complex.